Artificial Intelligence Prediction of Age from Echocardiography as a Marker for Cardiovascular Disease

Abstract

Accurate understanding of biological aging and the impact of environmental stressors is crucial for understanding cardiovascular health and identifying patients at risk for adverse outcomes. Chronological age stands as perhaps the most universal risk predictor across virtually all populations and diseases. While chronological age is readily discernible, efforts to distinguish between biologically older versus younger individuals can, in turn, potentially identify individuals with accelerated versus delayed cardiovascular aging. This study presents a deep learning artificial intelligence (AI) approach to predict age from echocardiogram videos, leveraging 2,610,266 videos from 166,508 studies from 90,738 unique patients and using the trained models to identify features of accelerated and delayed aging. Leveraging multi-view echocardiography, our AI age prediction model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 6.76 (6.65 - 6.87) years and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.732 (0.72 - 0.74). Stratification by age prediction revealed associations with increased risk of coronary artery disease, heart failure, and stroke. The age prediction can also identify heart transplant recipients as a discontinuous prediction of age is seen before and after a heart transplant. Guided back propagation visualizations highlighted the model’s focus on the mitral valve, mitral apparatus, and basal inferior wall as crucial for the assessment of age. These findings underscore the potential of computer vision-based assessment of echocardiography in enhancing cardiovascular risk assessment and understanding biological aging in the heart.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

Yuki Sahashi reports support from the KAKENHI (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science: 24K10526) and honoraria for consulting from m3.com inc. David Ouyang reports support from the National Institute of Health (NIH; NHLBI R00HL157421, R01HL173487 and R01HL173526) and Alexion, and consulting or honoraria for lectures from EchoIQ, Ultromics, Pfizer, InVision, the Korean Society of Echocardiography, and the Japanese Society of Echocardiography. Christina Binder reports support from the Max-Kade Foundation.

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I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

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The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

Institutional Review Boards at Cedars Sinai Medical Center, Institutional Review Boards at Stanford Health Care

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Data Availability

Data available on reasonable request

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