Evaluating the predictive value of frailty scores for critical care admission and hospital stay in elderly surgical patients: a comparison of the mFI-5 and CCI

Abstract

Background : Frailty is a critical determinant of postoperative outcomes in elderly patients. Several frailty assessment tools, including the Modified Frailty Index (MFI-5) and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), have been proposed to predict complications, hospital length of stay (LoS), and critical care admission. However, their comparative predictive value across a broad spectrum of non-cardiac surgeries remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive ability of MFI-5 and CCI in predicting critical care admission and length of stay (LoS) Methods: This single-centre retrospective study analysed data from patients over 65 years of age who attended the preoperative assessment clinic at the Mater Misericordiae University Hospital (MMUH), Dublin, between November and December 2023. MFI-5 and CCI scores were calculated, and their ability to predict hospital LoS (>5 days) and critical care admission was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis. Results: Data from 100 patients were included. Critical care admission was required for 20 patients, and the average hospital length of LoS was 4.5 days. AUROC analysis demonstrated that neither the MFI-5 nor CCI were predictive of critical care admission or extended LoS in this cohort. Conclusion: The findings suggest that MFI-5 and CCI alone may not be sufficient to predict critical care admission or hospital LoS in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. Given the multifactorial nature of postoperative risk, future models integrating frailty indices with surgical and anaesthesia-specific factors may enhance predictive accuracy, improve risk stratification, and optimize perioperative resource allocation.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

The research was approved by the research ethics committee (REC) at Mater Misericordiae University Hospital (MMUH) (Ref: 1/378/2445).

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

Data Availability

Data cannot be shared publicly because of GDPR restrictions. Data are available from the ethics committe at the MMUH +353 1 803 2971 for researchers who meet the criteria for access to confidential data.

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